Checking the Variability of the Results
The IDL application also supports the histogram display of ensemble data. Ensemble forecasting is a common method used in weather predictions. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced. This forecasting group gives an indication of the range of possible future states of the atmosphere.
In research fields such as meteorology, objects being analyzed often behave chaotically and the numerical forecast results contain errors that increase with time. In order to identify and mitigate this error, L3Harris Geospatial K.K. designed this application to use a method called Ensemble Forecasting.
In the Ensemble Forecasting method, multiple forecasts are made based on different conditions and statistical information, such as the average and the degree of variability, to provide a probabilistic view of the occurrence of specific weather phenomena. Another benefit of using this IDL application is that the user can also display a histogram of the ensemble data. The user can point and click and easily check the distribution of the results, based on multiple forecasts (Figure 3).
The IDL application for numerical weather prediction model analysis is expected to have a significant impact on the accuracy of Japanese weather models. Professor Genta Ueno has highly praised the research and work and says, “I am highly satisfied with the operability and functionality of the application.”